As you head into your fantasy drafts, it’s not enough to have identified a player or two you want to target. It’s also useful to have a sense of players you want to avoid, particularly those whose outlooks appear likely to fall short of their big-name billing.
I’m here to help with a list of four stars — one at each of the major positions — I’m fading in the weeks ahead. Of course, every player listed is worth drafting, but only if he falls far enough past his average draft position (ADP). For this exercise, I’ll be using as a baseline each player’s ADP in the aggregated, half-PPR rankings at Fantasy Pros.
Derrick Henry, RB, Titans
ADP: 4th at RB | Me: 10th
Let’s go ahead and kick things off with the player for whom the biggest things are predicted. I told folks to steer clear of Henry last year, and you’re darn right I’m doing it again. Of course, my powers of prognostication weren’t looking so hot when the Tennessee back was leading all running backs in fantasy scoring though eight weeks, and by a considerable margin at that. However, he then suffered a foot injury that required surgery, keeping him out of action until the NFL playoffs.
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Foot injuries are concerning, but this one could be considered a fluke, especially given that Henry had only missed two games over his previous five seasons. But something seemed like it had to give because the Titans were giving him an outrageous workload of 27.4 carries per game, plus 2.3 receptions, for almost 30 touches every week. To spin this forward, Tennessee is inviting a similar outcome if it tries the same tactic, particularly because Henry will be 29 by the end of the season. That’s positively ancient for a running back, and even for someone of his remarkable size, he has racked up a lot of wear and tear with 1,495 career touches, fourth most among players currently on NFL rosters.
If the Titans scale back Henry’s touches, it could keep him spry, but his numbers would suffer because he has become increasingly reliant on volume. His 4.3 yards per carry last season was easily his lowest over the past four seasons, and his rate of broken tackles has plummeted over the same span.
Then there’s the highly questionable ability of the Titans’ offense to deliver Henry a steady stream of easy touchdown opportunities. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill showed his own signs of decline last season and is now 34, and with the departure of wide receiver A.J. Brown, Tannehill is throwing to one of the league’s least-imposing receiving corps behind one of the lowest-rated offensive lines.
Add it all up, and I see way too many red flags to want to spend a first-round pick on Henry. That almost certainly means you won’t be getting him if you follow my advice, but you will be getting a chance to make a draft-day bet on someone with a more palatable risk-reward profile.
Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers
ADP: 6th at WR | Me: 11th
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During a 2021 campaign in which he finished second only to Cooper Kupp in WR fantasy points per game, Samuel accumulated some remarkable numbers. One of which was his eight rushing touchdowns, an NFL record for his position, on just 59 carries. Another incredible stat was his 18.2 yards per reception, the most among all wide receivers with at least 25 catches, despite his average depth of target being just 8.6 yards, which ranked 83rd in that group.
It’s all very impressive — but the overall performance is also primed for regression. The rushing touchdowns are almost guaranteed to drop, if only because Samuel reportedly wants to be used less in that role and San Francisco should be healthier this season at running back and thus less in need of his services on the ground. In addition, new starting quarterback Trey Lance is a major rushing threat in his own right and is likely to keep some of those end zone visits to himself.
Samuel could remain the NFL’s yards-after-catch king, given that he has led the league in YAC per reception in each of the past two years and was second in 2019. Lance looms again, though, as a potential limiting factor because he projects to be much more of a deep-ball thrower — which should benefit 49ers wideout Brandon Aiyuk in particular — than predecessor Jimmy Garoppolo. With Lance looking to use his legs to extend plays and give Aiyuk time to get open downfield, or to tuck the ball and run with it, Samuel could be missing the good old days when Garoppolo wanted to get the ball out early and often on quick-hitting routes.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
ADP: 9th at QB | Me: 13th
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Rodgers will turn 39 this season, but Tom Brady has shown that’s maybe not a big deal and Rodgers could still be riding a late-career boost from the psychedelic powers of ayahuasca. At age 38, the Green Bay superstar was still good enough to win his second straight NFL MVP award and finish sixth at his position in fantasy points.
Of greater concern is the loss of Davante Adams, who was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders this spring after finishing in the top six in wide receiver fantasy points per game in each of the past four years. Rodgers helped Adams reach those heights, but the reverse was almost certainly the case as well. In particular, it’s hard to envision Rodgers having as good a rapport with any of this year’s Packers receivers near the goal line; Adams scored 12 of his 29 touchdowns over the past two seasons from less than six yards out.
Green Bay’s new No. 1 wideout, by Rodgers’s own acclaim, is Allen Lazard, a former undrafted free agent who established career highs last season with 40 catches for 513 yards. Other veterans on hand include the mercurial Sammy Watkins and a past-his-prime Randall Cobb, with rookies Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs tasked with eventually forming the mind meld their QB demands. Doubs has looked surprisingly good in training camp and preseason action, but the real strength of the Packers this year is probably at running back, given the estimable presence of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. It would make all the sense in the world for Green Bay to try to wring as much production as possible from its backfield, at the expense of its talent-deficient passing attack.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs
ADP: 13th overall | Me: 22nd
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It’s not that I’ve pushed Kelce down my tight end list, although I do perceive him as holding no more than a razor-thin margin over second-ranked Mark Andrews. It’s just that I have him as far closer to a third-round value than the near-first-rounder his ADP suggests. Thus, as with Henry, I won’t be getting much of the Kansas City stalwart in my drafts.
The Henry comparisons continue with Kelce’s age and declining efficiency. Kelce turns 33 in October and is set to become the oldest non-quarterback with a top-15 ADP since Randy Moss in 2010 (per Sharp Football Analysis). Last season, he posted his lowest yards per reception and yards per route run since 2015, and he had a major tumble from 2020 in fantasy points over expectation (66.3 to 41.3, per RotoViz).
Of course, even on a possible career downslope, Kelce may be able to make up for it this season because of Tyreek Hill’s absence. The big-play wide receiver was traded to Miami and leaves behind 159 targets, some of which might reasonably be expected to get funneled in Kelce’s direction. On the other hand, the Chiefs brought in several receivers, including veterans JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling and promising rookie Skyy Moore, and the team could be looking to spread the passing-game wealth.
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Defenses seemed in 2021 to have figured out some of Coach Andy Reid’s tendencies, so dealing Hill could have been the first step in a schematic overhaul that might be to Kelce’s benefit. Then again, it might not. The takeaway for me is that there’s too much uncertainty here to feel that Kelce is an especially safe pick, and if he’s not locked into the volume his drafters are expecting, there isn’t a lot of upside at this point in other aspects of his game.
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